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Updated on Feb 11
Today, this proposition is only analyzed from the perspective of common sense, all are objective facts, and no subjective judgment is made in the article. Sometimes the more complicated the problem could be much easier understood if we change an angle or the way people think. Future Real Estate Group has been working on simplifying complicated hot topics in the market in order to conclude readily.
Let's talk about the geographical distribution of the Greater Vancouver area first, and use Google Maps that everyone knows. You can try it by yourself: the distance between the east and west is around 60 kilometers, from north to south are around 40 kilometers. Horseshoe Bay in the west to Aldergrove in the east, Grouse Moutain in the north to Peace Arch in the south. The administrative area of Greater Vancouver is only about 2400 square kilometers.
The official figure is 2700 square kilometers, but this area also covers most of the northern mountain area, rivers, bays and reservation land such as Delta Nature Reserve, the actual lower mainland area that has daily human activities is about 1,600 square kilometers. If you want to count Abbotsford and Chilliwack, the Greater Vancouver area would be no more than 2,400 square kilometers. Note that this is only a geographical area, not an usable area, how large is this Usable Area?
"Metro Vancouver has 60,893 ha (150,467 acres) in the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), which makes up 22% of the region’s land base." - quote from: http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/PlanningPublications/Farming_In_Metro_Vancouver_Oct_2014.pdf
In other words, within the officially recognized Greater Vancouver area (2700 square kilometers), except for the areas of mountains, agricultural land, rivers and bays, there is only an area of about 800 square kilometers left, and could be used as residential purpose.
And then minus 110 square kilometers of industrial land, http://www.metrovancouver.org/boards/IndustrialLandsStrategy/INL_2019-Sep-12_AGE.pdf
There is no detailed statistics on the area of commercial land in our hand, as well as the area of public roads, the area of protected forests and the area of aboriginal peoples residency. In fact, the land that can be used for residential development is only about 600 square kilometers. What does this mean? A square with a length of 25 kilometers, this is the land available for residential development in the Greater Vancouver area.
The scarcity of land in the entire Greater Vancouver area is obvious, and residential land is even more scarce. The total population of the Greater Vancouver area is currently approximately 2.6 million. Using Beijing as a reference, Beijing has 16,808 square kilometers and a resident population of 22 million, with an average of 1,300 people per square kilometer. The density in Greater Vancouver is 962 people per square kilometer (based on the official data of 2700 square kilometers). Compared with the average density of population in Canada (1 per squre kilometer = 37 million devided by a land area of 9.98 million square kilometers), the population density in the Greater Vancouver area is already very very high, but:
The latest data in 2019 indicate that the number of new populations entering the Greater Vancouver area each year is 30,000 to 40,000, and then it is expected that an additional 1 million people will be added in 2050: https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/opinion/population-growth-2050-metro-vancouver-1941860
Assuming this number is correct, then the population in the Greater Vancouver area will be 3.6 million, with 1,333 people per square kilometer, and the density will be the same with today's density in Beijing. However, Beijing is located in the northern part of the North China Plain, and there are some places that expand to the south. Therefore, unless land reclamation in the Greater Vancouver area, there will be no much new land in the future. Land is scarce. The value of land must rise, and it must rise faster than cities with large land and vast land.
Plus climate, Great Vancouver is located in a temperate marine climate zone. "Summer temperature is generally around 20 ° C and winter temperature is above 0 ° C. Vancouver's average maximum temperature in January is 6 ° C and July is 22 ° C. Annual rainfall ratio Tofino is less than half. It rarely snows in winter, but there is still more rainfall, which brings Vancouver the name of "Canadian Rain Capital". In November, the temperature of Vancouver is generally maintained between 3 ° C and 9 ° C. Gentle and comfortable. "(Excerpt from Baidu Encyclopedia). The top five most liveable cities in the world. Culture, value, geography, humanity and perfect enviroment, the only thing to worry about in such a place is how to control the number of people entering, not if no one comes.
Let ’s put aside all the real estate data today to analyze the trend of the Vancouver housing market. In short, land will only become more and more scarce and the value will only get higher and higher. Any short-term adjustments and downgrades are buying points held in the medium and long term .
“Copyright belongs to Future Real Estate Group. Sharing is welcomed without authorization, but please indicate the source". Thank you so much for paying attention to Future Real Estate Group.
Translation is partially from translate.google.ca